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Methane and carbon dioxide effluxes from aquatic systems in the Arctic will affect and likely amplify global change. As permafrost thaws in a warming world, more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and greenhouse gases are produced and move from soils to surface waters where the DOC can be oxidized to CO 2 and also released to the atmosphere. Our main study objective is to measure the release of carbon to the atmosphere via effluxes of methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from Toolik Lake, a deep, dimictic, low-arctic lake in northern Alaska. By combining direct eddy covariance flux measurements with continuous gas pressure measurements in the lake surface waters, we quantified the k 600 piston velocity that controls gas flux across the air–water interface. Our measured k values for CH 4 and CO 2 were substantially above predictions from several models at low to moderate wind speeds, and only converged on model predictions at the highest wind speeds. We attribute this higher flux at low wind speeds to effects on water-side turbulence resulting from how the surrounding tundra vegetation and topography increase atmospheric turbulence considerably in this lake, above the level observed over large ocean surfaces. We combine this process-level understanding of gas exchange with the trends of a climate-relevant long-term (30 + years) meteorological data set at Toolik Lake to examine short-term variations (2015 ice-free season) and interannual variability (2010–2015 ice-free seasons) of CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes. We argue that the biological processing of DOC substrate that becomes available for decomposition as the tundra soil warms is important for understanding future trends in aquatic gas fluxes, whereas the variability and long-term trends of the physical and meteorological variables primarily affect the timing of when higher or lower than average fluxes are observed. We see no evidence suggesting that a tipping point will be reached soon to change the status of the aquatic system from gas source to sink. We estimate that changes in CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes will be constrained with a range of +30% and −10% of their current values over the next 30 years. 

Abstract. The TGS 2600 was the first low-cost solid-state sensor that shows a response to ambient levels of CH4 (e.g., range ≈1.8–2.7 µmol mol−1). Here we present an empirical function to correct the TGS 2600 signal for temperature and (absolute) humidity effects and address the long-term reliability of two identical sensors deployed from 2012 to 2018. We assess the performance of the sensors at 30 min resolution and aggregated to weekly medians. Over the entire period the agreement between TGS-derived and reference CH4 mole fractions measured by a high-precision Los Gatos Research instrument was R2=0.42, with better results during summer (R2=0.65 in summer 2012). Using absolute instead of relative humidity for the correction of the TGS 2600 sensor signals reduced the typical deviation from the reference to less than ±0.1 µmol mol−1 over the full range of temperatures from −41 to 27 ∘C. At weekly resolution the two sensors showed a downward drift of signal voltages indicating that after 10–13 years a TGS 2600 may have reached its end of life. While the true trend in CH4 mole fractions measured by the high-quality reference instrument was 10.1 nmolmol-1yr-1 (2012–2018), part of the downward trend in sensor signal (ca. 40 %–60 %) may be due to the increase in CH4 mole fraction because the sensor voltage decreases with increasing CH4 mole fraction. Weekly median diel cycles tend to agree surprisingly well between the TGS 2600 and reference measurements during the snow-free season, but in winter the agreement is lower. We suggest developing separate functions for deducing CH4 mole fractions from TGS 2600 measurements under cold and warm conditions. We conclude that the TGS 2600 sensor can provide data of research-grade quality if it is adequately calibrated and placed in a suitable environment where cross-sensitivities to gases other than CH4 are of no concern.